Eight years ago, I published what I considered to be a stirring post-election manifesto. Partly it critiqued racism and sexism. A chunk of urged readers to support those who face bigger obstacles than straight, white, middle class men like myself. Mostly it was a rallying cry about how to move forward in the face of Donald Trump’s victory.
But early on, the piece also alluded to a 2,500 word screed I’d decided not to publish. That one was way more critical. Specifically, I lambasted white people, bother middle class liberals and Trump voters. Both barrels blazing. But I did not publish it because I thought it might be a bit too harsh.
Eight years ago, we didn’t know what to expect, so I didn’t want to lay it on too thick. Now we know exactly what to expect. Eight years ago, Donald Trump was inexperienced and probably intimidated by the presidency, so he agreed to keep people around him whose purpose was to restrain him. And to some degree they did. This time he will face no constraints. Eight years ago, Democrats were able to hold up large parts of Trump’s agenda. But with the GOP about to control both houses of Congress, the only tool the Democrats will have is a Senate filibuster, and Trump will get more of what he wants, as will Republican congressional leaders. Eight years ago, the Supreme Court was still salvageable. No more. Trump will likely replace two justices. SCOTUS will continue to be a retrograde institution for at least a generation to come. Perhaps longer.
So fuck it. I hereby present the post-election screed I wrote in November, 2016. It is in its original form. Eight years later, there are a couple of things I might write differently now, but for the most part, I still stand by it, and present here unedited except for tyopos. And maybe I should have published it eight years ago. But I didn’t. This isn’t eight years ago, but what needs to be said still needs to be said.
Historians have spilled much ink analyzing and interpreting all of the U.S. presidential elections, dating back to George Washington’s first run in 1788. But a handful of contests get more attention than others. Some elections, besides being important for all the usual reasons, also provide insights into their eras’ zeitgeist, and proved to be influential far beyond the four years they were proscribed.
2016 and 2020 were almost certainly among those elections, though academic historians have not yet written much about them (or even Obama’s 2008 election) because we typically wait a couple of decades before sensing that an event has passed from current or recent events into our distant domain. And anyway, it’s quite possible, even likely, that many future historians will examine the three Trump elections of 2016, 2020, and 2024 as a bundled set.
But that still leaves about 55 elections historians have focused on and learned lessons from. So here on Election Day 2024, I offer a brief digest of select, momentous presidential elections and explain how they connect to Trumpism and today’s contest.
1800– George Washington won uncontested elections in 1788 and 1792. By 1796, he was a wildly popular war hero and founding father who could have held onto the office. Some Americans even called for him to become a king. But Washington valued the new republican experiment, and also wanted to go home, so he retired. In doing so, he set an important precedent that lasted nearly 150 years. No future president, no matter how popular, attempted to serve more than two terms until Franklin Roosevelt disregarded tradition and won four consecutive presidential elections (1932–44).
In 1796, John Adams defeated Thomas Jefferson in the first truly contested presidential election. Four years later, Jefferson bested Adams in the rematch. For the first