I did not vote for Democrat Barack Obama today. I voted for Green Jill Stein. And for that, I will be scorned by Democrats, friends and strangers alike, who think that if one rejects right-wing economics or adheres to progressive social ideals, then there is a moral imperative to vote for the Donkeys.
Never mind that Libertarians are far more liberal in their social policies, or that Greens are far more progressive on core issues like environmental protection, consumer protection, and workers’ rights. Or that both typically champion a less imperialistic and more pacifist foreign policy. And never mind that the Democratic party has been pushing what can be generously described as center-right economic policies ever since the ascension of Bill Clinton twenty years ago.
Neither Stein nor Libertarian Gary Johnson nor Justice Party candidate Rocky Anderson has a ghost’s chance. So for now, let’s just focus the two major party candidates, one of whom will win.
The question I want to put forward is this: Is it really so much better for progressives and liberals if Barack Obama defeats Mitt Romney tonight?
Perhaps. But then again, so far as I can tell, maybe not by much.
Conventional wisdom defines Romney as conservative and Obama as progressive. But when you actually look at their records, the differences begins to narrow substantially. In fact, I think it’s quite fair to say that Mitt Romney was more liberal as governor of Massachusetts than Barack 
Obama has been as president of the United States. Chew on that one for a minute. And yes, track records really do count for something.
Then again, as a historian I’m acutely aware that the past is an unreliable indicator of the future. In this case, the weight of the presidency, and a federal system of government predicated on compromise, have a way of drawing most presidents to the center. So it’s quite reasonable to assume that if Romney wins, he won’t prove to be as liberal as his Massachusetts’ governor’s incarnation, or as conservative as he positioned himself during the Republican primaries. Indeed, just as the 2008 and 2012 Republican primaries pulled him from left to right, the the election has already drawn him back much closer to the middle. And likewise, Barack Obama has not been nearly as liberal a president as he was an Illinois state legislator or even a U.S. Senator. He has moved to the center.
In other words, don’t believe the hype. Neither man is exactly who their supporters or enemies claim he is. Indeed, that should just be a given. Thus, if it’s true that a President Romney would not be as conservative as many fear, then it is also true that Barack Obama has often shown himself to be more of a center-right pragmatist than the progressive that many of supporters see when they look at him.
Yes, when you add it all up, I do prefer Barack Obama to Mitt Romney. For starters, Obama seems to tell fewer lies (more on that in tomorrow’s post). However, that being said, I think there’s a good chance that Romney would not actually be much worse than 
Obama should he find his way to the Oval Office.
In addition to his rather liberal record in Massachusetts, Romney strikes me as the kind of executive who will go along to get along with his legislature. He seems much more interested in winning the presidency than using the office to advance any particular agenda. In part I think that’s because Romeny does not seem terribly principled. Of course that’s generally a bad thing, and another reason I prefer Obama, who is not perfectly principled himself by any means, but does stand for a number of things I agree with. However, when it comes to practical application, I think a lack of strong convictions can have a positively tempering effect. Lest we forgot, George W. Bush believed very strongly in many things, and that contributed greatly to his undoing, as well as ours.
If Romney doesn’t stand for much, he probably won’t fight for much. I’m of the opinion that as the chief executive, he would be largely inclined to sign whatever Congress puts in front of him. I can’t imagine many vetoes under most circumstances. In trying to assess what a Romney presidency would like like then, I think you need to take a hard look at Congress. And like the current Congress, the next one will probably be split between the parties.
The Republicans will almost certainly retain control of the House of Representatives. And most polls indicate that it’s highly lik
ely the Democrats will retain control of the Senate. In fact, statisticians like Nate Silver say the Democrats have an even better chance of holding onto the Senate than they do to the White House.
So if Romney should defy the odds and win tonight, while the Democrats keep the Senate, I’m inclined to believe a Romney presidency would be compromise oriented. Indeed, I think it would look a lot like the last two years, when Obama also dealt with a split Congress, and was rarely defiant towards the opposition.
Should Romney win with the Republicans sweeping Congress? That’s another story altogether, and I think it’s a recipe for economic disaster. For while I don’t think Romney is anywhere near as conservative as most congressional Republicans, I do think he would happily dance to their tune if that were the primary option.
But rather than put the terror of Romney into you, that potential scenario should serve as an important reminder that votes for president are over emphasized and overvalued in our culture, while votes for just about every other office are under emphasized and undervalued.
So on this quadrennial Election Day, this November leap year, this political olympiad, let me close with a blessing. Take thee to the voting both, you engaged informed citizen, and cast all of your ballots for all that you believe, without fearing the worst or believing the best. We are all just people, imperfect and conflicted. And today we share our mudd
led thoughts and desperate dreams as we select the men and women who will do only some of what we want, who will disappoint us in countless ways, and who hopefully will not, despite our worst fears, knock the wheels off this wobbly wagon.
Amen.