Two days ago, I began writing a piece concerning my biggest fear about the Boston Marathon bombing. But then I stopped.
It was all so speculative. There weren’t yet any suspects, and wondering aloud just seemed irresponsible. So instead I wrote a philosophical piece about the nature of humanity.
But now that we have two suspects, one dead and one on the lam, and we are starting to learn about them, I’m ready to finish and publish that piece. Because it seems my biggest fear might be coming true.
After the bombing, speculation began surfacing almost immediately. Many on the Right were instantly convinced that it must be an attack by Islamic jihadists. Many on the Left suspected it was the handiwork of right wing extremists, perhaps white supremacists, anti-abortionists, or anti-government figures.
But I was deeply concerned about a third possible explanation that has received comparatively little attention.
I worried that this was the latest episode of mass, public bloodletting, from Columbine to Newtown. I worried that the bombing of Boston might be the newest incarnation of the Active Shooter phenomenon.
I am no expert on Active Shooters by any means. But having spoken to someone who has done thorough research for law enforcement on this phenomenon, here’s what I know.
There are some common threads in the psychological profiles of Active Shooters. Among other things, almost all of them have been seriously bullied. They are not alone in this experience, of course. But future Active Shooters respond to serious and ongoing bullying by coming to see the world as a binary: Everyone everywhere is either a bully or bullied.
Clinging to this false dichotomy, the future Active Shooters then decides that they no longer want to be bullied. By their logic, this means they must become bullies. Among a few twisted and tortured souls, this results in plans to become a bully by inflicting great harm on many people.
In this era of instantaneous and gratuitous press coverage, most Active Shooters are also aware of each other’s exploits. Each one becomes a mark of evil, and as such, a celebrity of sorts. Perhaps unsurprisingly, there is often an effort then by the latest Active Shooter to one-up the most recent event. Each bully wants attention, and wants to be known as the biggest bully of all.
So after the absolute horror of Newtown, I began to ask myself: How do you one-up the machine gunning of little children?
Well, setting off a couple of bombs at a world famous event with thousands of people in attendance might, to an Active Shooter’s mind, accomplish that.
Obviously, we still don’t know much about this event or the two suspects, Tamerlan and Djohar Tsarnaev. They are immigrants, so we can probably cross Right Wing, Nativist, Anti-Government White Supremacist off the list of motivations. Boston does not seem to be another Oklahoma City or Atlanta Olympics.
They are also Muslim, so until we learn more, connections to Al-Qaeda or a similar organization cannot be ruled out. However, The Tsarnaevs are Chechens from the former Soviet Republic of Kyrgyzstan, not Arabs from the Middle East. Furthermore, Tamerlan apparently fathered a child by a Christian girlfriend wife. All of that greatly complicates any speculative connections that people may wish to draw between them and an Al-Quaeda-like group. We’ll see.
But we do know that Tsarnaevs, as immigrant children, were outsiders who didn’t fit in. At least one of them complained of having no American friends and not “understanding them.” That kind of alienation is a red flag for the Active Shooter profile.
Time will tell. Undoubtedly we will continue to learn more in the days to come. But sadly, for now at least, my initial suspicion is possibly correct. My big fear might still be realized: The Active Shooter phenomenon may very well be spiraling towards ever more outrageous episodes of murder and mayhem.
UPDATE: It is important to mention one important way in which the Tsarvaev brothers adamantly do not fit the profile for most Active Shooters. When confronted, Active Shooters often crumble. They typically lack an exit strategy and revert to “bullied” status when confronted. This explains why they often kill themselves when cornered, or surrender to just about anyone. In the end, this case may not end up neatly fitting into any pre-approved categories.
UPDATE 4/20: Current reports are conflicted. In 2011, at the request of a foreign government (probably Russia) the FBI interviewed Tamarlan Tsarnaev, but “did not find any terrorism activity, domestic or foreign.” And almost everyone who knew them seems to be shocked. For example, NPR reports: Badrudi Tsokayev, a friend of the father, waved his hands repeatedly as he described his shock at hearing the news. Like others who recalled the family, he saw no signs of radicalism. Though ABC News is now citing one anonymous relative who says Tamerlan was radicalized in the U.S.